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NOAA Announces 2007 Hurricane Predictions — May 23rd 2007

By Alexia Prichard

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released its predictions for the coming season: they anticipate 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. According to the NOAA statement:

"Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year--showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans."

Nowhere will this statement about preparedness have greater impact than in New Orleans. Ever since Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, organizations in the area have been trying to do just that: get the city ready for whatever the new hurricane season has in store. While Congress and state officials in Louisiana discuss plans to bolster the wetlands to the east and south of the city--natural structures that will eventually act as organic storm force-reducing barriers--the once-maligned U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has been busy shoring up levees and installing new preventive systems.

One such system is a series of three remotely-operated hydraulic gates that have been installed at the mouths of the 17th Street Canal, the Orleans Avenue Canal, and the London Avenue Canal. These are the very canals whose levees failed during Hurricane Katrina. The idea is that the gates will halt any storm surge coming into the city from Lake Pontchartrain, and will give the pumps at each canal a chance to work the way they were supposed to during Hurricane Katrina. Back in August 2005, the storm surge flowed straight from the lake into the canals, putting so much pressure on the pump system that it was unable to cope with the inflow. Eventually the earthen levees along the canals collapsed under the pressure. With the gates in place, the pumps will be able to pump out any water in the low-lying areas of the city without simultaneously dealing with the surge from Lake Pontchartrain.

Also in place is a new early-warming system called SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisitions). The SCADA system involves a series of sensors that are placed along each canal, providing measurements of water level. In the event of storm surge from the lake, the SCADA system will alert monitors in a remote location and the decision will be made to close the gates.

While no man-made system can ever guarantee dominance over the whims of Mother Nature, these extra measures will at least provide the Crescent City with the fighting chance it didn't have in 2005. For an animated explanation of canal gates and pumps, see "Outfall Canal Closures & Pump Stations" on the website for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hurricane Protection System.
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